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Development of a Methodology for Econometric Modeling of The Effective use of Export Potential
Corresponding Author(s) : Tuktabek Jumaboyevich Rahkimov
American Journal of Economics and Business Management,
Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): April
Abstract
Effective utilization of export potential is critical for sustaining economic growth, regional competitiveness, and foreign economic stability. In Uzbekistan's Khorezm region, structural imbalances and a lack of systematic export-import policy hinder optimal use of export potential, necessitating robust assessment frameworks. Despite global efforts in econometric evaluation of foreign economic activity, methodological tools for analyzing export potential at the regional level—particularly for small open economies—remain underdeveloped. This study aims to develop a methodology for econometric modeling of the effective use of export potential, focusing on calculating efficiency indicators, evaluating spatial economic security, and proposing predictive tools for export policy optimization. Using statistical data from 2020–2024, the research applied correlation-regression analysis and spatial modeling techniques, revealing that declining export volumes and policy inefficiencies are limiting Khorezm’s growth. A new model was formulated using weighted Euclidean distance and a "Potential Field" framework to comprehensively assess regional export capacities. The study advances the field by integrating quantitative econometric tools and spatial analysis to assess export efficiency, offering a replicable model for regional analysis. The proposed methodology provides policymakers with actionable insights for enhancing regional export performance and aligning foreign economic strategies with national priorities. It also contributes to establishing critical thresholds for trade security and sustainability, thus offering a scientifically grounded basis for informed decision-making in regional economic planning.
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- M. A. Dudchenko и others, Diversification of the export potential of Ukraine. Ukraine and the world economy: the interaction on the brink of the millennium. Kyiv: Lybid, 2002.
- J. S. Tukhtabaev и др., «Econometric modeling and forecasting of the increase in the export potential of small businesses and private enterprises in the Republic of Uzbekistan», в Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems, 2022, сс. 298–310.
- R. B. Tekin, «Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis», Econ. Model., т. 29, вып. 3, сс. 868–878, 2012.
- G. Bayar, «Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature», Empir. Econ., т. 54, вып. 2, сс. 629–672, 2018.
- M. Bahmani-Oskooee, «Export growth and economic growth: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling», J. Dev. Areas, т. 27, вып. 4, сс. 535–542, 1993.
- M. Kırkın, A. Aktepe, и B. Toklu, «Export Potential Index for Textile Industry (EPIT) model proposal with structural equation modelling and application», Kybernetes, 2024.
- V. Y. Skripnichenko, A. N. Gerasimov, O. P. Grigoryeva, Y. S. Skripnichenko, и E. I. Lelikova, «Export Potential of the Region: Problems of Estimation, Modeling, and Forecasting», в Sustainable Development of the Agrarian Economy Based on Digital Technologies and Smart Innovations, Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024, сс. 233–239.
- S. V. Dubkov, «Formirovanie i otsenka eksportnogo potenciala promyshlennykh predpriyatii», Bankauski Vesn., вып. 28 (537), сс. 29–35, 2011.
- A. Dooranov, A. Asanova, Z. Zhumaliyeva, O. Pyroh, N. Duliaba, и N. Kolinko, «Instruments for the Development of the Country’s Export Potential», Linguist. Cult. Rev., т. 5, вып. S4, сс. 1819–1829, 2021.
- O. A. Shestakova, «Metodicheskie aspekty otsenivaniya eksportnogo potenciala predpriyatiya», Vestn. NTU KhPI, вып. 7 (981), сс. 173–198, 2016.
- A. Dooranov, A. Asanova, Z. Zhumaliyeva, O. Pyroh, N. Kolinko, и N. Duliaba, «Tools for the Country’s Export Potential Development», Econ. Aff., т. 67, вып. 4, сс. 573–578, 2022.
- S. V. Yu, «Models and forecasts of the export potential of the regional economic system», Regionology, т. 30, вып. 4 (121), сс. 762–782, 2022.
- O. A. Shestakova, «Metodicheskie aspekty otsenki eksportnogo potenciala predpriyatiya», Vestn. NTU KhPI, вып. 7 (981), сс. 173–181, 2013.
- M. Aucamp, «The estimation of export potential values in international market selection methods: a comparative analysis», PhD Thesis, North-West University (South Africa), 2020.
- L. C. Leonidou и C. S. Katsikeas, «The export development process: an integrative review of empirical models», J. Int. Bus. Stud., т. 27, сс. 517–551, 1996.
References
M. A. Dudchenko и others, Diversification of the export potential of Ukraine. Ukraine and the world economy: the interaction on the brink of the millennium. Kyiv: Lybid, 2002.
J. S. Tukhtabaev и др., «Econometric modeling and forecasting of the increase in the export potential of small businesses and private enterprises in the Republic of Uzbekistan», в Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems, 2022, сс. 298–310.
R. B. Tekin, «Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis», Econ. Model., т. 29, вып. 3, сс. 868–878, 2012.
G. Bayar, «Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature», Empir. Econ., т. 54, вып. 2, сс. 629–672, 2018.
M. Bahmani-Oskooee, «Export growth and economic growth: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling», J. Dev. Areas, т. 27, вып. 4, сс. 535–542, 1993.
M. Kırkın, A. Aktepe, и B. Toklu, «Export Potential Index for Textile Industry (EPIT) model proposal with structural equation modelling and application», Kybernetes, 2024.
V. Y. Skripnichenko, A. N. Gerasimov, O. P. Grigoryeva, Y. S. Skripnichenko, и E. I. Lelikova, «Export Potential of the Region: Problems of Estimation, Modeling, and Forecasting», в Sustainable Development of the Agrarian Economy Based on Digital Technologies and Smart Innovations, Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024, сс. 233–239.
S. V. Dubkov, «Formirovanie i otsenka eksportnogo potenciala promyshlennykh predpriyatii», Bankauski Vesn., вып. 28 (537), сс. 29–35, 2011.
A. Dooranov, A. Asanova, Z. Zhumaliyeva, O. Pyroh, N. Duliaba, и N. Kolinko, «Instruments for the Development of the Country’s Export Potential», Linguist. Cult. Rev., т. 5, вып. S4, сс. 1819–1829, 2021.
O. A. Shestakova, «Metodicheskie aspekty otsenivaniya eksportnogo potenciala predpriyatiya», Vestn. NTU KhPI, вып. 7 (981), сс. 173–198, 2016.
A. Dooranov, A. Asanova, Z. Zhumaliyeva, O. Pyroh, N. Kolinko, и N. Duliaba, «Tools for the Country’s Export Potential Development», Econ. Aff., т. 67, вып. 4, сс. 573–578, 2022.
S. V. Yu, «Models and forecasts of the export potential of the regional economic system», Regionology, т. 30, вып. 4 (121), сс. 762–782, 2022.
O. A. Shestakova, «Metodicheskie aspekty otsenki eksportnogo potenciala predpriyatiya», Vestn. NTU KhPI, вып. 7 (981), сс. 173–181, 2013.
M. Aucamp, «The estimation of export potential values in international market selection methods: a comparative analysis», PhD Thesis, North-West University (South Africa), 2020.
L. C. Leonidou и C. S. Katsikeas, «The export development process: an integrative review of empirical models», J. Int. Bus. Stud., т. 27, сс. 517–551, 1996.