Predicting The Exchange Rate of The US Dollar Against The Iraqi Dinar ID Using Time Analysis Techniques
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31150/ajshr.v6i6.3702Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Forecasting, Moving Averages, Auto Regression, Box-JenkinsAbstract
This research aims to study Box-Jenkins models. ARIMA models, which rely on the degree of auto regression, the degree of integration, and the degree of moving averages to predict the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar ID. The Box-Jenkins methodology was developed to construct a time series model, and then select the best model to predict future values of the US dollar exchange rate against the ID. Forecasting was conducted on a four-year time series, from 2022 to 2025. It was found that the best forecasting model is (2,1,4).
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