Selected Issues of Application of Excise Tax in The Conditions of Uzbekistan's Accession to The WTO

Abstract

Excise taxation plays a vital role in regulating consumption behavior and generating public revenue, particularly in economies undergoing structural transformation. As Uzbekistan progresses toward World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, it faces the need to align its excise tax system with international norms, especially concerning imported and domestically produced excisable goods. Despite ongoing reforms, inconsistencies remain between domestic and imported excise tax rates, and there is limited empirical analysis of their fiscal implications under WTO-aligned scenarios. This study aims to forecast excise tax revenues in Uzbekistan for 2025–2026 and assess the implications of harmonizing tax structures using historical data and policy scenarios. Using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, three scenarios moderate, optimistic, and pessimistic were modeled. Under the moderate scenario, total excise revenues are projected to reach 5.82 trillion soums in 2026. The research provides a scenario-based projection tailored to Uzbekistan’s WTO accession phase, incorporating both domestic and imported product segments and introducing differentiated taxation models for sugar-sweetened beverages. The findings support evidence-based policy adjustments for optimizing excise taxation and reducing informal consumption, while aligning with public health goals and WTO obligations. The proposed differentiated tax on sugary beverages and policy harmonization could strengthen revenue sustainability and promote healthier consumption behavior.